China: Unprecedented Contraction of Real Sector and Consumer Demand

On Monday, March 16, 2020, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released official estimates of national economy performance in the first two months of 2020.

  • According to NBS, in January-February 2020 China's industrial production contracted 13.5% year-over-year, services production declined 13%, investment in fixed assets dropped 24.5% and retails sales of consumer goods were down 20.5%.
  • Amid what is considered a general recession, some industries, such as production of pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, and high-tech manufacturing, still "manifested sound growing momentum".
  • The sharp decline in consumer and investment demand along with the decline in exports outpacing the decline in imports makes it hard to achieve the consensus 4% GDP growth in Q1 2020.

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