COVID-19 Dynamics Threaten Prolonged Recession in Japan and South Korea

(17 December 2020) Until recently Korea and Japan were considered among a select few countries to represent the gold standard in the COVID-19 containment response, even if the world had barely begun to understand what exactly they did right. Early information suggests timely implementation of contact tracing along with well-established habits of wearing face masks, particularly in Japan, contributed.

Now it seems that by slingshotting from strict protocols to the most lax among major world economies, COVID-19 is outstripping and perhaps overwhelming previously successful containment strategies. The economic slow down, which in the first half of 2020 was largely attributable to disruptions in global supply chains and suppressed foreign demand, could be prolonged into the first quarter of 2021 due to new anti-COVID restrictions.

• As of mid December 2020, new daily COVID-19 cases per million population in South Korea and Japan increased to 18 and 21, respectively, nearly double the previous peaks in each country.
  
• Compared the world's other largest economies the speed of the COVID-19 spread is still relatively low but on par with countries such as India and Indonesia.