(05 November 2021) Between Q2 2020 and Q1 2021, when the U.S. economy was struggling because of pandemic-related restrictions and high unemployment, an increase in government spending and tax cuts provided significant support to U.S. economic growth. However, after the fiscal stimulus programs ended in Q1 2021, the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. GDP growth turned negative, according to the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure estimate.
Definition: The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) measures how much federal, state, and local tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth. The FIM only measures the direct effects of fiscal policy and includes no multipliers.
Live data and insights on Coronavirus around the world, including detailed statistics for the US, EU, and China — confirmed and recovered cases, deaths, alternative data on economic activities, customer behavior, supply chains, and more.
For the first time during the post World War II era, the global economy is expected to shrink due to measures in force worldwide to suppress the coronavirus, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, 2020. In this edition of the WEO, the IMF shortened the forecast horizon to 2021 instead of the expected 2025 horizon and limited the number of indicators available in its statistical tables because of the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions. In the baseline scenario—which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of...
In August, US manufacturing activity contracted 2.1 points from July, the largest contraction in nearly three years. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) - commonly referred to as the ISM manufacturing index - fell to 49.1, making the US a late comer to a growing club of large economies, such as China, the Eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, that have likewise reported contracting manufacturing sectors in recent months. The PMI is being dragged down by a sharp decline in new orders, non-farm employment (which increased by...
(8 April 2021) Amid COVID-19 vaccination progress and new stimulus measures from the US government, IMF economists are predicting a shining near-term future for the global economy. Here are the key takeaways from the April 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report: The IMF now estimates 2020 growth to have been -3.3 percent, a 1.1 percentage point upward revision from its October 2020 projection. The outlook for 2021 improved by 0.8 percentage points, to 6%, based on expected additional fiscal support in the US and other large economies and anticipated...
(14 October 2020) The corona-crisis is different from past economic recessions in that it has touched all economies without exception. But if we look from economy to economy, we quickly observe that the economic consequences of the corona-crisis are far from uniform. To understand why, for example, GDP in Korea dropped just 2.8% YoY in Q2 2020 while India experienced a 23.9% YoY contraction, we collected key macroeconomic indicators for Q2 2020 for the world's 15 largest economies. At first blush the data was disappointing, because the economic strain appeared again to be rather...
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