International Monetary Fund

The global growth is projected at 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023—0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower than in the January forecast, respectively. The downgrade largely reflects the war's direct impacts on Russia and Ukraine and global spillovers. North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are most affected. The food and fuel price increases will hurt lower-income households globally

Data cited at: Balance of Payments(BOP) and International Investment Position(IIP), World and Regional Aggregates, The International Monetary Fund BOPSY Global Tables aggregate country data by major balance of payments components and by international investment position (IIP) data for (i) Net IIP and (ii) Total Assets and Total Liabilities. Data for countries, country groups, and the world are provided. In addition to data reported by countries as shown in BOPSY, balance of payments data are provided for international organizations in BOPSY Global Tables. The BOPSY Global Tables include, in addition to reported data, data derived in a few instances indirectly from published sources.

Data cited at: Consumer price indexes, The International Monetary Fund Consumer price indexes (CPIs) are index numbers that measure changes in the prices of goods and services purchased or otherwise acquired by households, which households use directly, or indirectly, to satisfy their own needs and wants. In practice, most CPIs are calculated as weighted averages of the percentage price changes for a specified set, or ‘‘basket’’, of consumer products, the weights reflecting their relative importance in household consumption in some period. CPIs are widely used to index pensions and social security benefits. CPIs are also used to index other payments, such as interest payments or rents, or the prices of bonds. CPIs are also commonly used as a proxy for the general rate of inflation, even though they measure only consumer inflation. They are used by some governments or central banks to set inflation targets for purposes of monetary policy. The price data collected for CPI purposes can also be used to compile other indices, such as the price indices used to deflate household consumption expenditures in national accounts, or the purchasing power parities used to compare real levels of consumption in different countries.

Global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions of the world. The distribution of risks to near-term global growth has become more balanced relative to the October World Economic Outlook but is still tilted to the downside. The decline in oil prices could boost activity more than expected. Geopolitical tensions continue to pose threats, and risks of disruptive shifts in asset prices remain relevant. In some advanced economies, protracted low inflation or deflation also pose risks to activity. The chapter takes a region-by-region look at the recent development in the world economy and the outlook for 2015, with particular attention to notable development in countries within each region.

COFR presents data on fiscal transparency. It provides an overview of fiscal reporting, including whether fiscal data are available for all of the general government, whether the government reports a balance sheet, and whether spending and revenue are reported on a cash or accrual basis. It also derives specific indices of the coverage of public institutions, fiscal flows, and fiscal stocks.

Recent exchange rate movements have been unusually large, triggering a debate regarding their likely effects on trade. Historical experience in advanced and emerging market and developing economies suggests that exchange rate movements typically have sizable effects on export and import volumes. A 10 percent real effective depreciation in an economy’s currency is associated with a rise in real net exports of, on average, 1.5 percent of GDP, with substantial cross-country variation around this average. Although these effects fully materialize over a number of years, much of the adjustment occurs in the first year. The boost to exports associated with currency depreciation is found to be largest in countries with initial economic slack and with domestic financial systems that are operating normally. Some evidence suggests that the rise of global value chains has weakened the relationship between exchange rates and trade in intermediate products used as inputs into other economies’ exports. However, the bulk of global trade still consists of conventional trade, and there is little evidence of a general trend toward disconnect between exchange rates and total exports and imports.

Data cited at: Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI), Reporting Entities, The International Monetary Fund. The Reporting entities dataset provides information on the structure, size, and coverage of the financial institutions that are used for compiling financial soundness indicators. It provides a better understanding of the structure of the reporting entities in terms of the type of institution, number of entities, size of assets, and type of control. Reporting entities are domestically incorporated entities but are divided into two: domestically controlled and foreign controlled. The concepts of residency criterion and control are determined based on FSI Guide methodology which is in line with international best practices such as Systems of National Accounts. Data on reporting entities cover the branches,

The Global Debt Database (GDD) is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor. The dataset includes total gross debt of the (private and public) non financial sector for an unbalanced panel of 190 advanced economies, emerging market economies and low-income countries, dating back to 1950. For more details on the methodology and definitions, please refer to Mbaye, Moreno Badia and Chae (2018). 

The energy subsidy estimates reported here are based on the broad notion of post-tax subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Pre-tax subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs, are also reported as a component of post-tax subsidies. These subsidies will not necessarily coincide with definitions used by governments or with their reported subsidy numbers. The energy subsidy estimates are not available for the following countries in 2013: Bhutan, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Eritrea, Fiji, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kiribati, Kosovo, Lao P.D.R., Liberia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia, Niger, Palau, Samoa, San Marino, São Tomé and Príncipe, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, South Sudan, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. In 2015, estimates are not available for two addtional countries: Burundi and Togo.

The Historical Public Debt Database contains unbalanced panel data on Gross Domestic Product, Gross Government Debt, and Gross Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio for 187 countries. The series spans the years 1800 through 2015 although each country’s data depends on its date of independence and data availability. The database was constructed by bringing together a number of other datasets and information from original sources. For the most recent years, the data are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database to facilitate regular updates.

Covering 187 countries including most low-income countries, the toolkit provides indicators on export product diversification and export product quality from 1962-2014. The measures in this toolkit are based on an updated version of the UN–NBER dataset, which harmonizes COMTRADE bilateral trade flow data at the 4-digit SITC (Rev. 1) level. The export diversification and quality database was developed by IMF staff under an IMF-DFID research collaboration. The Export Diversification Database has three main indicators: the Export Diversification Index, the Extensive Margin, and the Intensive Margin. Higher values ​​for the all three indices indicate lower diversification. The Export Quality Database contains export quality measures across different aggregation levels of export products. Higher values ​​for the quality indices indicate higher quality levels.

The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers. Understanding the role of monetary policy in recent global disinflation, and the factors that influence the social acceptability of structural reforms, will be key to promoting stable and more rapid growth in the future.

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among those emerging market and developing economies that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policymakers in these countries is whether commodity windfall gains and losses influence potential output or merely trigger transient fluctuations of actual output around an unchanged trend for potential output. The analysis in this chapter suggests that both actual and potential output move together with the commodity terms of trade but that actual output commoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract almost 1 percentage point annually from the average rate of economic growth in commodity exporters over 2015–17 as compared with 2012–14. In exporters of energy commodities, the drag is estimated to be larger: about 2¼ percentage points on average over the same period. The projected drag on the growth of potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

This database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2009, and also includes data on the resolution and fiscal and economic costs of banking crises. Note: Laeven, Luc and Fabian Valencia, 2010, Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, IMF working paper 10/146.

Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23. As global inflation descended from its mid-2022 peak, economic activity grew steadily, defying warnings of stagflation and global recession. However, the pace of expansion is expected to be low by historical standards and the speed of convergence toward higher living-standards for middle- and lower-income countries has slowed, implying persistent global disparities. With inflationary pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly. A renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability. Intensifying supply-enhancing reforms are crucial to increase growth towards the higher prepandemic era average and accelerate income convergence. Multilateral cooperation is needed to limit the costs and risks of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, speed the transition to green energy, and facilitate debt restructuring.

The IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Data set (WoRLD) is a compilation of government tax and non-tax revenues from the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics and World Economic Outlook, and drawing on the OECD Revenue Statistics and Revenue Statistics in Latin American and the Caribbean.